Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 56.8%). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 61.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Stepan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Stepan
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
56.6% (1,064)
-2.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
60.4% (260)
-60.4%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
54.0% (261)
+10.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +60.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Stepan
O'Reilly
Home
54.5% (222)
54.9% (801)
Away
57.2% (222)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Stepan
O'Reilly
P1
57.5%
58.0%
P2
54.7%
56.7%
P3
55.9%
55.4%
Final 5 min
57.5%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |