Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (79% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 68-48 in 116 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 81.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 90.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 90.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 87.6%
87.6%
12.4%
Stepan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
68
(116 meetings)
48
68
Stepan
O'Reilly
Last 10: Stepan 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
20
19
Stepan
O'Reilly
39 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
23
30
Stepan
O'Reilly
53 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
19
Stepan
O'Reilly
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
56.2% (15,260)
-9.7%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
58.8% (3,445)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
51.4% (2,811)
-7.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Stepan
O'Reilly
Home
47.6% (6,608)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Stepan
O'Reilly
P1
47.5%
55.6%
P2
45.6%
57.0%
P3
46.8%
55.1%
OT
40.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 07:35 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 02:11 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 13:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 01:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 3 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |