Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.1% vs Stamkos 45.8% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 57.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 68.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 57.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Stepan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stepan
Stamkos
Last 7: Stepan 6-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (680)
45.6% (1,055)
-0.7%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
46.6% (116)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (57)
42.1% (38)
-12.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stepan is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Stepan shoots right. Stamkos is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (337).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stamkos
Home
45.6% (463)
48.4% (636)
Away
43.3% (404)
42.3% (591)
By Period
Stepan
Stamkos
P1
50.2%
45.7%
P2
39.4%
46.8%
P3
45.7%
43.7%
OT
38.9%
48.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2012 | 1 | 11:48 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2012 | 2 | 07:02 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2012 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 8, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 2 | 04:22 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 3, 2011 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 3, 2011 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |