Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 21 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 47-30 in 77 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 83.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 73.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 75.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 76.5%
23.5%
76.5%
Stepan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
30
(77 meetings)
47
30
Stepan
Stamkos
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
9
8
Stepan
Stamkos
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
16
5
Stepan
Stamkos
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
22
17
Stepan
Stamkos
39 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
50.4% (9,799)
-3.9%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
55.1% (1,725)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
49.7% (825)
-5.5%
On power play, Stamkos has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stamkos
Home
47.6% (6,608)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Stepan
Stamkos
P1
47.5%
49.1%
P2
45.6%
52.7%
P3
46.8%
50.9%
OT
40.7%
54.3%
Final 5 min
47.5%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 03:56 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 3 | 09:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 3 | 03:20 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 3 | 01:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 2 | 08:10 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |