Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.8%). Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 70.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 59.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Stepan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Stepan
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
55.3% (628)
+0.0%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
55.1% (216)
-55.1%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
40.2% (87)
+10.6%
On power play, Stamkos has a +55.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stepan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Stepan shoots right. Stamkos is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stamkos
Home
57.7% (213)
55.5% (499)
Away
50.7% (209)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Stepan
Stamkos
P1
56.3%
50.7%
P2
48.9%
53.8%
P3
57.1%
55.9%
Final 5 min
57.6%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 03:56 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |