Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 56.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 74.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 58.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Stepan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Stepan
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Stepan
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
49.3% (789)
+5.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
56.9% (181)
-56.9%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
54.1% (98)
+10.6%
On power play, Stamkos has a +56.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stamkos
Home
54.5% (222)
52.0% (512)
Away
57.2% (222)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Stepan
Stamkos
P1
57.5%
42.1%
P2
54.7%
56.4%
P3
55.9%
53.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |