Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Stamkos 53.8% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 70.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 82.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 73.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Stepan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Stepan
Stamkos
Last 8: Stepan 2-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
Stepan
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Stepan
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
54.1% (460)
-6.8%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
64.2% (106)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
45.3% (106)
-0.1%
On power play, Stamkos has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stepan is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Stepan shoots right. Stamkos is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stamkos
Home
50.4% (560)
58.2% (328)
Away
45.1% (637)
50.6% (344)
By Period
Stepan
Stamkos
P1
47.4%
57.5%
P2
47.0%
53.1%
P3
48.1%
52.7%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |