Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Hertl 51.4% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 71.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 71.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 70.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Stepan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Stepan
Hertl
Last 8: Stepan 2-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Stepan
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Stepan
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Stepan
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
50.4% (367)
-2.2%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
64.6% (48)
-16.4%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (174)
49.2% (59)
-11.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Stepan shoots right. Hertl is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Stepan
Hertl
Home
46.4% (774)
50.9% (220)
Away
47.7% (748)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Stepan
Hertl
P1
46.7%
52.7%
P2
46.3%
52.8%
P3
48.1%
49.7%
OT
47.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 03:25 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 3 | 01:24 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 10:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 3 | 07:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |