Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.8%). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 64.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 52.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Stepan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Stepan
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Stepan
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
54.1% (1,117)
+1.2%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
59.8% (296)
-59.8%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
34.4% (32)
+16.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +59.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Stepan
Hertl
Home
57.7% (213)
54.3% (709)
Away
50.7% (209)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Stepan
Hertl
P1
56.3%
51.6%
P2
48.9%
53.6%
P3
57.1%
58.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 12:43 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |