Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 26 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 43-40 in 83 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 58.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 54.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 58.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Stepan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
43
(83 meetings)
40
43
Stepan
Hertl
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
17
Stepan
Hertl
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
14
12
Stepan
Hertl
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
17
14
Stepan
Hertl
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
53.8% (8,268)
-7.3%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
59.3% (1,975)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
46.3% (806)
-2.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Stepan
Hertl
Home
47.6% (6,608)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Stepan
Hertl
P1
47.5%
53.6%
P2
45.6%
54.1%
P3
46.8%
55.3%
OT
40.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 12:43 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 10:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 07:52 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 12:03 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |