Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 50.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 68.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 51.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Stepan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Stepan
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
51.6% (1,084)
+2.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
61.0% (246)
-61.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
44.1% (136)
+20.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +61.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Stepan
Hertl
Home
54.5% (222)
55.2% (696)
Away
57.2% (222)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Stepan
Hertl
P1
57.5%
55.4%
P2
54.7%
54.8%
P3
55.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
57.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |