Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Nosek 53.4% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 59.8%
Defensive zone
Nosek 50.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Stepan
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Stepan
Nosek
Last 9: Stepan 5-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Stepan
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
55.1% (557)
-0.6%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
50.0% (4)
-50.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
47.7% (111)
+17.0%
On power play, Nosek has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Nosek is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
Stepan
Nosek
Home
54.5% (222)
52.3% (342)
Away
57.2% (222)
55.5% (330)
By Period
Stepan
Nosek
P1
57.5%
49.0%
P2
54.7%
53.8%
P3
55.9%
57.9%
Final 5 min
57.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 18:00 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 09:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:04 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 11:13 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 19:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 15:16 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |