Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Nosek 53.6% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 52.7%
Defensive zone
Nosek 85.7%
Neutral zone
Nosek 70.9%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Stepan
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
12
(27 meetings)
15
12
Stepan
Nosek
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
4
Stepan
Nosek
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
6
Stepan
Nosek
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
9
2
Stepan
Nosek
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
54.9% (2,674)
-8.4%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
44.7% (47)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
47.4% (424)
-3.2%
On even strength, Nosek has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Stepan
Nosek
Home
47.6% (6,608)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Stepan
Nosek
P1
47.5%
52.3%
P2
45.6%
54.0%
P3
46.8%
54.6%
OT
40.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 12:27 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 03:44 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 2 | 06:53 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 03:19 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 02:02 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 18:00 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 09:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:04 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 11:13 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 19:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |