Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Brassard wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 45.7% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brassard 87.8%
Defensive zone
Brassard 87.6%
Neutral zone
Brassard 91.9%
Result
Derick Brassard favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Brassard
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Brassard
Pavelski
Last 5: Brassard 0-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Brassard
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Brassard
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Brassard
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (530)
57.8% (569)
-12.7%
Power Play
48.3% (58)
60.2% (161)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
59.5% (121)
-9.5%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Brassard is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Brassard shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Home / Away
Brassard
Pavelski
Home
45.4% (284)
61.0% (403)
Away
44.7% (333)
56.6% (461)
By Period
Brassard
Pavelski
P1
51.2%
62.9%
P2
40.3%
56.6%
P3
43.2%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
57.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
45.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2012 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 02:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 00:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |