Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Brassard wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 50.0% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 86.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 72.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Brassard
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Brassard
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
1
0
Brassard
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brassard
1
0
Brassard
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (230)
52.3% (560)
-2.7%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
57.5% (113)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (30)
62.5% (16)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Brassard is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Brassard shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Brassard
Pavelski
Home
51.7% (143)
54.2% (360)
Away
48.3% (143)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Brassard
Pavelski
P1
46.4%
54.5%
P2
50.6%
56.7%
P3
53.9%
50.8%
Final 5 min
56.9%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
50.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |