Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Brassard wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 50.9% vs Dowd 53.3% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brassard 86.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 74.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Brassard
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Brassard
Dowd
Last 7: Brassard 3-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
1
0
Brassard
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Brassard
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brassard
2
1
Brassard
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (287)
55.4% (771)
-4.5%
Power Play
53.8% (39)
57.1% (7)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
45.5% (165)
+4.5%
On even strength, Dowd has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Brassard is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (110).
Brassard shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Brassard
Dowd
Home
52.1% (211)
58.2% (462)
Away
49.6% (119)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Brassard
Dowd
P1
47.3%
55.6%
P2
56.6%
50.5%
P3
47.8%
53.9%
OT
100.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
55.0%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
51.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 07:34 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 18:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |