Scouting Report
Reese Johnson holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cozens wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs Johnson 50.3% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 88.8%
Defensive zone
Cozens 51.4%
Neutral zone
Cozens 70.8%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Cozens
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cozens
Johnson
Last 5: Cozens 1-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
2
Cozens
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
2
Cozens
Johnson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
51.0% (196)
-5.4%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
50.0% (2)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
42.9% (14)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Cozens is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Cozens shoots right. Johnson is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (70).
Home / Away
Cozens
Johnson
Home
43.9% (410)
48.8% (125)
Away
47.2% (430)
52.9% (87)
By Period
Cozens
Johnson
P1
46.4%
54.2%
P2
41.6%
44.2%
P3
49.4%
54.8%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:04 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 02:39 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 1 | 16:55 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |