Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 50.6% vs Aho 54.9% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 65.3%
Defensive zone
Cozens 62.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Cozens
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cozens
Aho
Last 7: Cozens 3-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
Cozens
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (891)
54.5% (870)
-3.1%
Power Play
50.5% (184)
62.4% (266)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (85)
37.1% (62)
+5.3%
On power play, Aho has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cozens is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Cozens shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Cozens
Aho
Home
49.5% (638)
53.9% (603)
Away
51.9% (522)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Cozens
Aho
P1
51.9%
54.1%
P2
46.4%
55.0%
P3
54.2%
57.4%
OT
16.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
50.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 01:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |