Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cozens wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs Hertl 52.3% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 89.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 86.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 75.8%
24.2%
75.8%
Cozens
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Cozens
Hertl
Last 5: Cozens 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
0
Cozens
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Cozens
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
51.6% (1,084)
-6.0%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
61.0% (246)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
44.1% (136)
-9.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cozens is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Cozens shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Cozens
Hertl
Home
43.9% (410)
55.2% (696)
Away
47.2% (430)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Cozens
Hertl
P1
46.4%
55.4%
P2
41.6%
54.8%
P3
49.4%
48.9%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 16:27 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 09:45 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 08:48 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |