Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 92.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 65.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 77.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Cozens
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Cozens
Hertl
Last 7: Cozens 5-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cozens
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
4
0
Cozens
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (859)
54.1% (1,117)
-4.7%
Power Play
49.5% (186)
59.8% (296)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (129)
34.4% (32)
+5.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cozens is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Cozens shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Cozens
Hertl
Home
49.0% (600)
54.3% (709)
Away
47.6% (574)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Cozens
Hertl
P1
46.5%
51.6%
P2
52.9%
53.6%
P3
45.2%
58.6%
OT
53.8%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 08:17 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 08:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |