Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs Hertl 56.8% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 65.1%
Defensive zone
Cozens 63.8%
Neutral zone
Cozens 65.4%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Cozens
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Cozens
Hertl
Last 9: Cozens 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Cozens
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
1
Cozens
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Cozens
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
57.0% (718)
-10.3%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
64.9% (188)
-21.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
44.2% (77)
-1.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cozens is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Cozens shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Cozens
Hertl
Home
46.2% (567)
59.2% (463)
Away
44.9% (579)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Cozens
Hertl
P1
46.5%
56.3%
P2
46.5%
55.4%
P3
44.2%
60.5%
OT
22.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |