Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 46.4% vs Larkin 54.2% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 76.9%
Defensive zone
Coyle 73.5%
Neutral zone
Coyle 73.7%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 74.7%
74.7%
25.3%
Coyle
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Coyle
Larkin
Last 6: Coyle 1-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Coyle
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Coyle
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Coyle
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (603)
52.9% (1,228)
-6.6%
Power Play
50.9% (55)
63.1% (214)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
34.1% (44)
55.2% (145)
-21.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Coyle is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (496).
Coyle shoots right. Larkin is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Coyle
Larkin
Home
45.6% (373)
55.8% (805)
Away
46.2% (329)
53.2% (782)
By Period
Coyle
Larkin
P1
45.9%
55.2%
P2
46.4%
53.3%
P3
45.5%
55.1%
OT
40.0%
51.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
45.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 01:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 2 | 02:01 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 01:11 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |