Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Dickinson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Dickinson 49.6% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 88.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 51.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Larkin
Dickinson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Larkin
Dickinson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Dickinson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Dickinson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Dickinson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Dickinson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
51.8% (643)
-0.1%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
66.7% (9)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
38.7% (150)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dickinson shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (542).
Home / Away
Larkin
Dickinson
Home
52.4% (647)
48.7% (419)
Away
52.7% (643)
50.4% (383)
By Period
Larkin
Dickinson
P1
52.2%
42.6%
P2
53.1%
55.0%
P3
51.7%
50.0%
OT
61.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |