Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.5%). Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Larkin
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larkin
Pavelski
Last 6: Larkin 3-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Larkin
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Larkin
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
52.5% (570)
-0.7%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
54.5% (145)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
44.4% (36)
+3.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pavelski
Home
55.6% (662)
55.0% (391)
Away
48.3% (542)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Larkin
Pavelski
P1
49.9%
50.8%
P2
52.7%
55.0%
P3
53.0%
52.0%
OT
68.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2022 | OT | 01:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 05:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |