Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+4.3%)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 55.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 59.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Larkin
Pavelski
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
51.5% (594)
+4.4%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
51.7% (87)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
28.6% (14)
+17.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pavelski
Home
56.0% (654)
53.1% (339)
Away
54.8% (639)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Larkin
Pavelski
P1
54.4%
53.8%
P2
55.9%
47.8%
P3
55.2%
50.2%
OT
64.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%