Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Pavelski 53.0% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 53.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Larkin
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Larkin
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Larkin
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Larkin
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
52.3% (560)
+1.3%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
57.5% (113)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
62.5% (16)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pavelski
Home
56.6% (700)
54.2% (360)
Away
52.1% (655)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Larkin
Pavelski
P1
55.4%
54.5%
P2
54.7%
56.7%
P3
52.7%
50.8%
OT
59.1%
30.8%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |