Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs Bailey 50.0% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 75.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 70.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Larkin
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Bailey
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Bailey
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Bailey
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Bailey
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
50.8% (189)
+0.2%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
52.8% (53)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
28.6% (14)
+21.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Larkin is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (851).
Larkin shoots left. Bailey is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bailey
Home
54.9% (721)
55.2% (145)
Away
49.6% (641)
43.2% (111)
By Period
Larkin
Bailey
P1
52.4%
42.4%
P2
50.8%
52.2%
P3
54.4%
56.9%
OT
43.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2019 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |