Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Bailey 45.5% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 83.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 87.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Larkin
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Bailey
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Bailey
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Bailey
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Bailey
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
45.8% (1,991)
+5.9%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
48.1% (295)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
39.9% (281)
+10.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bailey
Home
54.0% (6,238)
46.6% (1,353)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
44.0% (1,232)
By Period
Larkin
Bailey
P1
52.7%
46.5%
P2
53.1%
44.8%
P3
52.1%
44.4%
OT
58.4%
51.1%
Final 5 min
53.2%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 13:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2020 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2019 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |