Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs McLeod 50.0% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 59.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 52.8%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Larkin
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
McLeod
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Larkin
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Larkin
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
52.0% (75)
-1.0%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
0.0% (2)
+59.5%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
33.3% (3)
+16.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +59.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Larkin is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Larkin shoots left. McLeod is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (52).
Home / Away
Larkin
McLeod
Home
54.9% (721)
40.0% (20)
Away
49.6% (641)
53.3% (60)
By Period
Larkin
McLeod
P1
52.4%
44.4%
P2
50.8%
61.5%
P3
54.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.8%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 19:16 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 05:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 08:51 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |