Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs McLeod 63.0% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 88.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 73.0%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Larkin
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Larkin
McLeod
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
4
Larkin
McLeod
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
64.8% (509)
-8.9%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
68.4% (19)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
65.3% (124)
-19.1%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. McLeod is 66.7% vs left-shot opponents (496).
Home / Away
Larkin
McLeod
Home
56.0% (654)
64.3% (308)
Away
54.8% (639)
65.7% (344)
By Period
Larkin
McLeod
P1
54.4%
62.9%
P2
55.9%
64.8%
P3
55.2%
67.9%
OT
64.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
53.8%
66.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
65.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 03:53 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 18:10 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 06:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 06:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 08:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |