Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 87.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 69.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 68.6%
31.4%
68.6%
Larkin
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Larkin
Bjugstad
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Bjugstad
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
4
Larkin
Bjugstad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Larkin
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
49.4% (867)
+4.2%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
56.0% (25)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
40.7% (216)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bjugstad
Home
56.6% (700)
46.5% (480)
Away
52.1% (655)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Larkin
Bjugstad
P1
55.4%
48.7%
P2
54.7%
45.6%
P3
52.7%
49.1%
OT
59.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 03:57 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 10:14 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 25, 2022 | OT | 00:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |