Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Bonino 50.0% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Bonino leads 20-15 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Bonino 53.8%
Defensive zone
Bonino 73.9%
Neutral zone
Bonino 60.7%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
Larkin
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
20
(35 meetings)
15
20
Larkin
Bonino
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
2
Larkin
Bonino
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
4
13
Larkin
Bonino
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
2
5
Larkin
Bonino
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
50.6% (8,315)
+1.1%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
54.1% (972)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
44.6% (1,693)
+5.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Bonino is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,917).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bonino
Home
54.0% (6,238)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Larkin
Bonino
P1
52.7%
50.6%
P2
53.1%
48.5%
P3
52.1%
51.1%
OT
58.4%
45.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:15 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 12:32 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 3 | 11:35 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 04:22 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 04:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 13:02 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 04:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 00:35 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |