Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kurashev shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Kurashev 46.6% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 91.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 80.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Larkin
Kurashev
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larkin
Kurashev
Last 8: Larkin 6-2 Kurashev
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Kurashev
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Kurashev
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Kurashev
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kurashev
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
42.8% (145)
+10.8%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
45.5% (33)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
66.7% (12)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, Kurashev has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kurashev shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Kurashev is 34.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kurashev
Home
56.6% (700)
51.2% (82)
Away
52.1% (655)
39.8% (108)
By Period
Larkin
Kurashev
P1
55.4%
51.7%
P2
54.7%
45.7%
P3
52.7%
37.0%
OT
59.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Kurashev
38.0%▼
43.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2023 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2023 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2023 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2023 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2023 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Philipp Kurashev |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Philipp Kurashev |