Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Greig 50.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 71.9%
Defensive zone
Greig 57.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 64.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Larkin
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Larkin
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Larkin
Greig
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
51.5% (336)
+0.2%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
66.7% (24)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
43.2% (81)
+5.0%
On power play, Greig has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Greig is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Larkin
Greig
Home
52.4% (647)
50.2% (247)
Away
52.7% (643)
51.5% (194)
By Period
Larkin
Greig
P1
52.2%
46.9%
P2
53.1%
58.8%
P3
51.7%
48.3%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |