Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.7%). Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Greig 53.8% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 70.7%
Defensive zone
Greig 66.8%
Neutral zone
Greig 54.6%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Larkin
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Larkin
Greig
Last 9: Larkin 3-6 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
1
4
Larkin
Greig
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
Larkin
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
53.6% (280)
-1.0%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
61.3% (31)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
56.5% (69)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Greig is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Larkin
Greig
Home
54.7% (783)
56.2% (185)
Away
54.3% (816)
53.3% (195)
By Period
Larkin
Greig
P1
55.9%
52.8%
P2
56.1%
51.6%
P3
51.1%
59.5%
Final 5 min
51.8%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 19:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 16:06 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |