Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Greig 48.8% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Greig leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 67.4%
Defensive zone
Greig 71.8%
Neutral zone
Greig 51.5%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Larkin
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Larkin
Greig
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Greig
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
5
Larkin
Greig
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
1
2
Larkin
Greig
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
48.5% (1,133)
+3.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
56.8% (74)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
46.5% (172)
+3.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Home / Away
Larkin
Greig
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.8% (681)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
47.7% (698)
By Period
Larkin
Greig
P1
52.7%
46.3%
P2
53.1%
51.2%
P3
52.1%
48.8%
OT
58.4%
28.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 19:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 16:06 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |