Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 17-11 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 63.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
Larkin
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
11
(28 meetings)
17
11
Larkin
Carpenter
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
0
Larkin
Carpenter
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
8
Larkin
Carpenter
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Carpenter
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
49.6% (2,027)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
41.5% (41)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
43.9% (467)
+6.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carpenter
Home
54.0% (6,238)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Larkin
Carpenter
P1
52.7%
49.6%
P2
53.1%
47.7%
P3
52.1%
48.0%
OT
58.4%
55.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:49 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 1 | 17:30 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 1 | 05:04 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 14:34 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |