Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 70.5%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 74.3%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 60.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Larkin
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Larkin
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Larkin
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Larkin
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
48.8% (404)
+7.1%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
100.0% (1)
-42.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
43.6% (101)
+2.6%
On power play, Carpenter has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carpenter
Home
56.0% (654)
48.9% (274)
Away
54.8% (639)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Larkin
Carpenter
P1
54.4%
51.9%
P2
55.9%
49.4%
P3
55.2%
41.8%
OT
64.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:49 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |