Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 51.5%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Carpenter 51.2% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 57.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 62.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 90.2%
90.2%
9.8%
Larkin
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Larkin
Carpenter
Last 5: Larkin 5-0 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Carpenter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
53.2% (299)
-1.4%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
33.3% (3)
+22.7%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
46.5% (86)
+0.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carpenter
Home
55.6% (662)
54.6% (207)
Away
48.3% (542)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Larkin
Carpenter
P1
49.9%
52.3%
P2
52.7%
51.5%
P3
53.0%
50.8%
Final 5 min
49.3%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |