Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.0%). Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Carpenter 52.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 57.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 54.5%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Larkin
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
Carpenter
Last 5: Larkin 2-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
3
Larkin
Carpenter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
53.1% (113)
+0.5%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
100.0% (1)
-40.7%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
60.0% (10)
-11.3%
On power play, Carpenter has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Carpenter is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carpenter
Home
56.6% (700)
58.5% (65)
Away
52.1% (655)
49.2% (59)
By Period
Larkin
Carpenter
P1
55.4%
65.8%
P2
54.7%
50.0%
P3
52.7%
47.9%
Final 5 min
57.0%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2022 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 1 | 17:30 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 1 | 05:04 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |