Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs Carpenter 44.1% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 95.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 66.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 80.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Larkin
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larkin
Carpenter
Last 8: Larkin 6-2 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Larkin
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Carpenter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
46.2% (474)
+4.8%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
28.6% (7)
+30.9%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
32.6% (129)
+17.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Larkin is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Larkin shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carpenter
Home
54.9% (721)
46.5% (303)
Away
49.6% (641)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Larkin
Carpenter
P1
52.4%
44.2%
P2
50.8%
40.4%
P3
54.4%
44.2%
OT
43.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.8%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2020 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 1 | 02:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |