Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Johansen 58.2% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 62.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.8%
Neutral zone
Johansen 56.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Larkin
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Johansen
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
2
Larkin
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
59.8% (625)
-6.2%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
58.2% (196)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
51.9% (27)
-3.2%
On even strength, Johansen has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johansen
Home
56.6% (700)
60.3% (436)
Away
52.1% (655)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Larkin
Johansen
P1
55.4%
61.3%
P2
54.7%
60.4%
P3
52.7%
56.0%
OT
59.1%
56.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 08:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 07:48 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 19:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 19:03 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |