Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Johansen 52.8% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 64.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Larkin
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Johansen
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Johansen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
51.9% (597)
+4.0%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
57.9% (133)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
54.3% (81)
-8.1%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johansen
Home
56.0% (654)
55.8% (387)
Away
54.8% (639)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Larkin
Johansen
P1
54.4%
50.0%
P2
55.9%
56.2%
P3
55.2%
52.6%
OT
64.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 11:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |