Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.6%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 19 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Couturier 52.6% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 44-40 in 84 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 60.3%
Defensive zone
Couturier 60.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.7%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Larkin
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
44
-
40
(84 meetings)
44
40
Larkin
Couturier
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
6
Larkin
Couturier
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
9
16
Larkin
Couturier
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
22
18
Larkin
Couturier
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
52.5% (11,063)
-0.8%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
59.7% (1,280)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
48.5% (1,816)
+1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (8,920).
Home / Away
Larkin
Couturier
Home
54.0% (6,238)
53.4% (7,147)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
51.8% (7,019)
By Period
Larkin
Couturier
P1
52.7%
52.5%
P2
53.1%
52.6%
P3
52.1%
52.9%
OT
58.4%
49.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 13:34 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:23 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 15:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | OT | 04:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 13:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 05:18 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 2 | 12:42 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 1 | 11:17 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 00:27 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |