Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Couturier 53.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 53.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.4%
Neutral zone
Couturier 57.9%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Larkin
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Larkin
Couturier
Last 8: Larkin 4-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
3
Larkin
Couturier
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
53.8% (1,003)
+2.1%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
56.4% (202)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
42.7% (89)
+3.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Couturier is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
Larkin
Couturier
Home
56.0% (654)
54.4% (680)
Away
54.8% (639)
52.4% (614)
By Period
Larkin
Couturier
P1
54.4%
56.3%
P2
55.9%
51.8%
P3
55.2%
52.2%
OT
64.0%
60.9%
Final 5 min
53.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 13:34 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:23 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 15:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | OT | 04:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 13:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 05:18 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |