Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Couturier 55.6% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 53.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Larkin
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Larkin
Couturier
Last 8: Larkin 3-5 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
3
Larkin
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Couturier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
55.1% (1,008)
-2.5%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
64.1% (142)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
53.3% (45)
+2.6%
On power play, Couturier has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Couturier is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
Larkin
Couturier
Home
54.7% (783)
58.1% (609)
Away
54.3% (816)
53.9% (586)
By Period
Larkin
Couturier
P1
55.9%
55.3%
P2
56.1%
55.8%
P3
51.1%
57.4%
OT
66.7%
45.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |