Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bertuzzi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Bertuzzi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Bertuzzi 48.2% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bertuzzi 78.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 64.9%
Neutral zone
Bertuzzi 59.0%
Result
Tyler Bertuzzi favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Bertuzzi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bertuzzi
0
3
Larkin
Bertuzzi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Bertuzzi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bertuzzi
0
1
Larkin
Bertuzzi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
47.4% (76)
+4.3%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
42.9% (21)
+15.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bertuzzi shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Bertuzzi is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (67).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Home
52.4% (647)
58.0% (50)
Away
52.7% (643)
34.0% (47)
By Period
Larkin
Bertuzzi
P1
52.2%
46.4%
P2
53.1%
36.1%
P3
51.7%
56.3%
OT
61.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Bertuzzi
46.0%▲
41.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:04 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Tyler Bertuzzi |