Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bertuzzi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Bertuzzi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Bertuzzi 42.9% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bertuzzi 78.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 61.3%
Neutral zone
Bertuzzi 56.3%
Result
Tyler Bertuzzi favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Last 8: Larkin 3-5 Bertuzzi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bertuzzi
0
4
Larkin
Bertuzzi
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Bertuzzi
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bertuzzi
0
1
Larkin
Bertuzzi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
41.6% (202)
+10.1%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
34.1% (41)
+24.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
0.0% (2)
+50.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +50.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bertuzzi shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Bertuzzi is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Home
54.0% (6,238)
51.2% (123)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
28.7% (122)
By Period
Larkin
Bertuzzi
P1
52.7%
44.0%
P2
53.1%
37.8%
P3
52.1%
37.1%
OT
58.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Bertuzzi
46.0%▲
41.0%
40.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:04 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 2 | 03:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |