Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Strome wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 52.6% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 74.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 64.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 54.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Strome
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Strome
Pavelski
Last 6: Strome 3-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
1
0
Strome
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
2
1
Strome
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Strome
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (1,002)
51.5% (594)
-0.9%
Power Play
59.9% (299)
51.7% (87)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
28.6% (14)
+29.3%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Strome is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (432).
Strome shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Strome
Pavelski
Home
51.9% (700)
53.1% (339)
Away
53.9% (620)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Strome
Pavelski
P1
51.6%
53.8%
P2
53.0%
47.8%
P3
54.3%
50.2%
OT
44.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
53.9%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
52.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:11 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |