Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Strome wins 60.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 58.0% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 64.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 59.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.3%
27.7%
72.3%
Strome
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Strome
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Strome
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
1
0
Strome
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (856)
55.4% (826)
+0.8%
Power Play
66.4% (298)
57.9% (221)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
50.4% (129)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Strome is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (808).
Strome shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Strome
O'Reilly
Home
55.7% (627)
55.8% (579)
Away
62.2% (539)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Strome
O'Reilly
P1
61.6%
57.7%
P2
54.5%
54.8%
P3
60.4%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
58.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 18:32 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 05:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |